SmashLob
Fair tennis win probabilities · SkipOdds Index

Two players. One fair number each.

Bookmaker prices for professional tennis, averaged across the market and stripped of the bookmaker margin — clean win probabilities for every match.

Today's matches

Live API Match-winner probabilities Margin removed Developer-first
Raw bookmaker odds · Cameron Norrie v Denis Shapovalov · 44 books
Cameron Norrie 49.8%Denis Shapovalov 56.1%
Total: 105.9%Bookmaker margin: +5.9%
↓ Margin removed
SkipOdds Index · fair probabilities
Cameron Norrie47.0%
Denis Shapovalov53.0%
Fair probabilities total: 100.0%
$ curl skipodds.com/v1/tennis/fixtures { "skipodds": { "p1": 0.4701, "p2": 0.5299, "margin_removed": 0.0595, "books_surveyed": 44 } }

The Board, live

Professional tennis · 62 bookmakers, de-vigged and refreshed continuously

ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 04:00 UTC
#40 Norrie47.0%
#42 Shapovalov53.0%
44 booksmargin cut +5.9%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 04:00 UTC
#51 Borges74.4%
#69 Acosta25.6%
60 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 04:00 UTC
#49 Munar61.7%
#102 Brooksby38.4%
61 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 04:00 UTC
Kotov34.6%
#58 Griekspoor65.3%
58 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 04:00 UTC
#77 Carabelli33.6%
Simakin66.4%
55 booksmargin cut +5.2%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 04:00 UTC
Coppejans11.8%
#43 Tsitsipas88.2%
57 booksmargin cut +4.9%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 05:10 UTC
#52 Vallejo55.5%
#105 Royer44.5%
59 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 05:10 UTC
#54 Tirante56.5%
#78 Medjedovic43.5%
60 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 05:10 UTC
#34 Hurkacz67.4%
#64 Duckworth32.6%
61 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 05:10 UTC
#47 Navone54.7%
#65 Busta45.3%
61 booksmargin cut +5.5%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 05:10 UTC
Tomic34.1%
#38 Arnaldi66.0%
55 booksmargin cut +5.3%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 06:20 UTC
#63 Marozsan52.4%
#82 Svajda47.6%
59 booksmargin cut +5.5%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 06:20 UTC
#73 Landaluce51.9%
#59 Struff48.1%
59 booksmargin cut +5.4%
ATP Shanghai Masters2026-10-08 06:20 UTC
#88 Giron45.6%
#53 Baez54.4%
60 booksmargin cut +5.5%

Finals · last 24h

China Open · Round 4
Ann Li v Elina Svitolina
2–6 3–6
Final
Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 1
Holger Rune v Daniel Altmaier
6–1 6–7 4–6
Final
Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 1
Arthur Fery v Marin Cilic
7–6 6–1
Final
Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 1
Wu Yibing v Michael Zheng
6–3 7–6
Final
Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 1
Quentin Halys v Chak Lam Coleman Wong
6–4 7–6
Final
Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 1
Rinky Hijikata v Roman Safiullin
5–7 3–6
Final
China Open · Round 4
Coco Gauff v Elise Mertens
3–6 3–6
Final
Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 1
Marco Trungelliti v Rei Sakamoto
3–6 5–7
Final

How it works

Bookmaker odds overstate every player — the margin ("vig") is baked in, so the two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. SmashLob averages the surveyed prices for each player and removes that margin, leaving the SkipOdds Index: the market's honest opinion of the match, two numbers that sum to exactly 100%. No bookmaker names, no betting slips — a forecast, not a tout.

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